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In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #59
Independents can choose their prime minister if they gain a majority, says CEC Sikandar Sultan Raja
On 1 February, following a discussion on the worsening law and order situation in the provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja informally spoke with members of the media and said independent members must join a political party within three days of winning the general elections as required by the constitution. However, if they hold a majority, they were also free to choose their prime minister. He also insisted that measures were being taken to ensure the safety of candidates and voters. He continued by saying that the security meeting had gone well, assuring everyone that the general elections would take place on the planned date and eliminating any possibility of confusion over the polling process. Raja elucidated that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) lacked the jurisdiction to reinstate internet connections in extraordinary circumstances and sensitive places. He said: “According to the security agencies, internet services will be available in the country on the election day.” Probing ahead, he reaffirmed his complete faith in the legal system, promising that all administrative and security preparations would be made to ensure a peaceful holding of the general elections. (Amna Ali and Rizwan Shehzad, “Independents can make their own PM if in majority: CEC,” The Express Tribune, 2 February 2024)
PTI set to conduct intra-party elections on 5 February
On 1 February, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) officially released the calendar for its intra-party elections. The elections are set to take place on 5 February, three days before the general elections. In an official statement, the PTI Federal Election Commission expressed its pleasure with the election timetable disclosure for the PTI intra-party elections, which are intended to elect the party’s chairman and central and provincial organizations. The PTI said that party members who were active as of 31 January will be able to vote for their preferred chairperson or panelist at designated polling places across Pakistan. Moreover, the ‘Raabta Application Intra-Party Election Module’ allow party members to use their voting privileges. The Election Rules, 2020 explain the complex election process and all the information about the panels that are running in the intra-party election, the PTI added. It further said that the official party website and the Raabta application will both have access to these guidelines. According to PTI, polls are expected to close at 4 pm on the day that they are held. Before the intra-party elections, the exact locations of the elections and the date of the appellate tribunal will be made public. (“PTI to hold intra-party polls on Feb 5,” The Express Tribune, 2 February 2024)
“We are ready to fight all forces,” says Bilawal in a political rally in Balochistan
On 1 February, the chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and a former foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, spoke to an enthusiastic assembly in Khuzdar, claiming to be the solution to addressing the missing persons problem in Balochistan. According to Bilawal, no other federal politician has the same level of empathy for the hardship and anguish experienced by the people in the area. At the public gathering, Bilawal emphasized the PPP’s resolve to defend the rights of Balochistan citizens and that the group does not give in to outside pressure. He said: “Yes, people know that PPP is the only party that does not bow before anyone. We are ready to fight all forces but we cannot compromise on people’s rights.” Furthermore, Bilawal claimed that many of the ongoing conspiracies in Balochistan would have come to an end if the NFC Awards and the 18th Amendment, which were introduced during the administration of former President Asif Ali Zardari, had been fully implemented. This further asserted Bilawal’s claim that the PPP is uniquely positioned to address the challenges facing his state. If elected, Bilawal pledged to provide Balochistan with strong representation, referring to the PPP’s election emblem, the ‘arrow.’ (“If anyone can resolve missing person issue, it’s me’, says Bilawal,” The Express Tribune, 2 February 2024)
Forthcoming polls will be a turning point in Pakistan’s political history
On 2 February, The Express Tribune reported that the next general elections, which are set to be held on 8 February present some complex difficulties and dynamically changing environments that make them an important turning point in Pakistan’s political history. According to The Express Tribune, the political landscape is primed for a complicated and fascinating election contest as the country struggles with its worst economic crisis, security threats from extremist organizations, and disillusioned young. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Da’esh pose grave risks, particularly in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and Baloch terrorist groups have increased their activity throughout Balochistan, making the security problems substantial. In this context, the average person has been negatively impacted by excessive inflation, resulting in a state of financial hardship. The PTI founding chairman Imran Khan’s ‘one-page’ mantra caused a rift with former army head Gen (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa, which opened the door for the PML-N, which had been targeted by the ‘powerful circles’ in the 2018 elections. This has resulted in substantial changes to the political landscape. The Express Tribune further added that following a 16-month term in office, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance faced issues both domestically and internationally, which made its constituent parties unpopular, particularly the PML-N, which led the coalition. After the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government made difficult decisions to obtain loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Imran Khan managed to restore popularity despite his poor performance in his previous term. (Irfan Ghauri, “Polls laced with unpredictability,” The Express Tribune, 2 February 2024)
Elections are set to happen on 8 February despite the commotion, says an editorial in Dawn
On 2 February, an editorial in Dawn titled, “Date confirmed,” reports that the ECP has requisitioned a high-level discussion about the worsening law and order situation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan cast doubt on the possibility of polls being held across the country. Following the announcement, there were speculations that the two provinces’ elections might be postponed. According to a senior ECP official, the Commission talked about postponing elections in high-risk areas because it was extremely concerned about the recent spike in violence due to terrorism. The army, meanwhile, had released a more comforting statement, pledging that the armed forces would be prepared to defend the ‘quintessential democratic exercise.’ According to the editorial, with politicians being shot dead or having their offices, convoys, and rallies attacked with firearms and bombs not all is well in the whole country. The numerous terrorist and militant groups active in the nation pose a clear and present threat, as they have said openly that they intend to take advantage of this delicate period of transition to further destabilize the entire country, the editorial added. Probing ahead, the editorial concluded that policymakers should consider that external actors aiming to undermine the country would attempt to exploit its internal problems while formulating their security strategies. (“Date confirmed,” Dawn, 2 February 2024)
PTI considers using ‘proxies’ to bypass poll ban
On 2 February, Dawn reported that the PTI has reached out to four political parties, including religious organizations, in the hopes that its ‘independent’ members will switch to these groups following the election. This would enable the former ruling party to maintain its reserved seats in the National Assembly through proxy measures, even though it has lost its electoral symbol, and potentially its reserved seats as well. The PTI has agreed to conduct intra-party polls on 5 February in an attempt to recapture its emblem, but party leaders are pessimistic about the results. On 1 February, Raoof Hasan, the PTI’s communications secretary and the federal election commissioner for the intra-party votes, revealed that a ‘coalition government’ with conditions will be imposed. It is also believed, that no political party will be able to secure a simple majority. (Ikram Junaidi, “PTI eyes ‘proxies’ to circumvent poll ban,” Dawn, 2 February 2024)
Shehbaz Sharif urges minority communities to vote for PML-N
On 1 February, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif appealed to minority communities, urging them to vote for his party in the upcoming 8 February polls for the prosperity of the country. During a meeting with representatives of minority communities, Sharif highlighted the PML-N’s commitment to minority representation in parliamentary bodies and cited past instances. On these lines, he stated: “Making Kamran Michael federal minister in the past is reflective of Nawaz Sharif’s love for minorities.” Sharif emphasized the party’s aim to ensure peaceful living conditions and opportunities for minorities to contribute to the country’s development if elected into power. (“Shehbaz seeks minority votes for party,” Dawn, 2 February 2024)
PR Exclusive Update #58
ECP to hold high-level conference to discuss the law and order situation
On 1 February, Dawn reported that the declining state of law and order in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan ahead of the elections on 8 February has prompted the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to call a high-level conference today, raising concerns that votes in the two provinces may be postponed. A zero-tolerance policy against political violence has been established by the military command, and they have also promised that no one would be permitted to tamper with elections. A statement issued by the end of the corps commanders conference asserted: “No one would be allowed to indulge in violence in the name of political activity and sabotage the quintessential democratic exercise of conduct of free and fair elections.” This comes after the violence that erupted after the assassination of an election candidate in Bajaur. The killing also led to the postponement of elections in NA-8 and PK-22 constituencies of the Bajaur district respectively. Following the escalating violence, On 31 January, the ECP issued a statement saying: “Keeping in view the deteriorating law and order situation, the ECP has convened a meeting on Thursday where Interior Minister, Secretary Interior, Chief Secretaries and Inspectors General of KP and Balochistan and representatives of intelligence agencies have been invited.” (Iftikhar A. Khan, Baqir Sajjad Syed, Anwarullah Khan and Saleem Shahid, “ECP meeting today as unrest threatens polls in KP, Balochistan,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Police raided and took control of PTI’s central secretariat in Islamabad, says a party representative
On 31 January, according to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) sources, police and security officials raided and ceased PTI’s central secretariat in Islamabad sector G-8. The sources added that the police have warned the members of PTI and asserted that they would face repercussions if they entered the premises. An official from Islamabad police denied the allegation put forth by PTI and said that no order was issued. The official added that the raid could not be conducted without the permission of the magistrate. The official claimed that they went for security purposes. He said: “A judgement against Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi was announced, and there was a possibility that a protest would be held there. Police did not enter the secretariat and remained outside.” PTI however, managed to host an online meeting. During the meeting, the PTI general body appointed Omar Ayub as the chief organizer and told him to issue information for the intra-party polls. The general body further nominated Raoof Hasan as the chief election commissioner for the new election commission. (Nasir Iqbal and Ikram Junaidi, “Police ‘take over’ PTI office in Islamabad before key meeting,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Pakistan is now the fifth largest democracy in the world, says Fafen report
On 31 February, according to the Fafen report, titled “Electoral Rolls, General Election 2024,” Pakistan became the fifth largest democracy in the world following India, Indonesia, the US and Brazil. It is to be noted that it is the first time Pakistan has registered more women voters compared to men voters in the last two elections. According to the report, Pakistan has a record 128.5 million people registered as voters on the Final Electoral Rolls (FER) for the upcoming elections on 8 February, accounting for over half of the country’s total population. This represents a significant increase of 22.5 million voters, including 12.5 million women, added since 2018. The report further stated that the number of people who are registered to vote makes up 53.2 per cent of the 241.49 million population. However, voter-to-population ratios vary by region, with more than half of the populations of Punjab (57 per cent) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (53 per cent) registered as voters. Balochistan trails behind with only 36 per cent of the people registered to vote, whereas Sindh and Islamabad have voter-to-population ratios approaching 50 per cent. (“Pakistan has fifth-highest number of registered voters in world: report,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari disapproves of “celebrations” over Imran Khan’s jail sentence
On 31 January, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari denied the celebration of Pakistan Tehree-i-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan’s jail sentence. In an election rally in Batkhela Bilawal said: “As a former prime minister is not allowed to contest elections, a party is celebrating this development. In 2018, another party had similar celebrations. We are not those who celebrate the plight of political opponents. We are the jiyalas [followers] of Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Shaheed Benazir Bhutto, who did not teach us such negative politics.” He said that PPP had never got a level playing field in the elections. He further stated that his party did not want to do politics based on the personal vendetta meaning that the country had already suffered because of it. The politics of former Prime Minister Imran Khan was based on ‘hate and division’. He further mentioned Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) leader Nawaz Shariff and said: “Nawaz Sharif played hate politics every time he became the prime minister. If he comes to power for the fourth time, he will repeat such politics and the people will suffer.” (Gohar Ali Gohar, “Bilawal rejects ‘celebrations’ over Imran’s jail sentence,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
MQM-P rules out the possibility of boycotting the forthcoming polls
On 31 January, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) ruled out the possibility of boycotting the elections scheduled for 8 February and warned that any attempt to “snatch” the mandate of Karachi through “vandalism and power” would attract a serious reaction, despite facing “threats and resistance” from the provincial administration and recent worker killings. The party’s most powerful members were incensed about the latest attack on its employees, but they made it plain that they had not selected to boycott the voting process when it came to the local government elections last year. MQM-P convener Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui while responding to a question about boycotting the forthcoming elections said: “How could we go into the flawed [local government] polls when some 100 union committees were removed from the Karachi electoral mandate.” (Imran Ayub, “Election boycott no longer an option, says MQM-P,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Karachi police continues to crackdown on PTI
On 31 January, crackdown on Pakistan Tehree-i-Insaf (PTI) party intensified as over 30 workers of the party were apprehended for allegedly inciting violence during a rally at Teen Talwar over the weekend. A police spokesperson said: “Thirty-nine more persons have been apprehended on charges of rioting, attacking policemen and ransacking official vehicles.” The spokesperson claims that 72 activists were held over three days. The spokesman went on to say that digital evidence against them was being used to identify them. According to Dawn, with only a week to election day, the police department has been conducting raids throughout the city to take PTI employees into custody. Additionally, the administrative judge of the antiterrorism courts (ATCs) sent 30 PTI activists to prison on judicial remand rather than granting them physical remand to the police. In front of the administrative judge, the investigating officer presented 30 PTI activists who had been detained and asked the court to order their physical remand. But the judge turned down his plea and kept them under judicial supervision until 15 February. (Sumair Abdullah and Imtiaz Ali, “Crackdown on PTI continues as Karachi police pick up 39 more workers,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
“Historical pendulum of victimisation” continues to characterise elections, argues an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 1 February, in their editorial in Dawn titled “The elusive mirage of level playing field,” Irfan Ghauri and Tahir Malik scrutinized the landscape as Pakistan approaches its 12th general elections, highlighting the persistent challenge of achieving a “level playing field.” The writers emphasized that the dream of fairness in electoral races remains an “elusive mirage,” often sacrificed at the “altar of power dynamics.” The editorial focused on recent events, such as PTI’s challenges post-alleged military installation breach, resulting in prominent figures like Imran Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi being in custody and candidates running independently. The editorial underscored the impact of this situation on the electoral landscape, questioning the concept of a “level playing field” in Pakistan’s political history, noting that PTI’s predominantly young supporters argue their party faces unprecedented victimization. A historical context of past elections was also provided, including PTI’s rise to power in 2018, where the Panamagate scandal facilitated its ascendancy over PML-N. The editorial also touched on PPP’s challenges in 2013, emphasizing the impact of terrorism on election campaigns, and PML-Q’s ascendency in 2002, marked by significant support from the establishment. The writers thus highlighted the recurrent theme of a skewed playing field. (Irfan Ghauri & Tahir Malik, “The elusive mirage of level playing field,” The Express Tribune, 1 February 2024)
Editorial in The Express Tribune says government’s objective should be to “improve the state of the economy”
On 31 January, Talat Masood in his editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Elections can be a vehicle for change” discussed the upcoming national and provincial elections, noting that “the more we abide by and strengthen the political system, the stronger would be the leadership’s ability to manage the economy.” He highlighted the paradox that despite being created through a historic democratic movement 76 years ago, Pakistan has struggled to fully assimilate democratic norms, with major political parties revolving around dynasties. Masood emphasized the importance of free and fair elections that would present the choice for “better and more deserving leadership.” The editorial marked the correlation between a stable political system and effective governance, asserting that it encourages local and foreign entrepreneurs to invest and promote trade. Masood urged the incoming government to prioritize projects like the second phase of CPEC, emphasizing that “major projects involving heavy investments by China were not accorded the high priority they deserved.” He stressed the need for the incoming leadership’s resolve to overcome challenges for a better and prosperous Pakistan. (Talat Masood, “Elections can be a vehicle for change,” The Express Tribune, 31 January 2024)
Pakistan has yet to experience truly free and fair elections says an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 1 February, in an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Free and fair polls will help save the republic,” Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri stressed that elections were “mandatory” in a democracy, emphasizing the need for a transparent and credible ballot. Critiquing the 8 February general elections in Pakistan, Mehkri expressed concern over low enthusiasm and a “smokescreen of suspicion, fear, and mistrust,” citing perceived partiality by the Election Commission and the denial of PTI’s right to an election symbol. He strongly criticized the ECP for failing to hold timely elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and lingering on delaying elections. The editorial regarded the ballot to be a “compromised affair,” given that PTI was denied the right to campaign, and regions like KP, Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan were not receiving an equitable share of resources. Mekhri contended that Pakistan has yet to experience truly free and fair elections, as a weakening of national institutions due to the “civil-military rift” increased the gap between the “self-construed troika of the people, the politicians and the military leadership.” The editorial concluded by suggesting that an indoctrination-free environment could “save the republic.” (Ishtiaq Ali Mekhri, “Free and fair polls will help save the republic,” The Express Tribune, 1 February 2024)
“The spectre of election-related violence is ever-present in Pakistan,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 1 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Peaceful elections” underscored the persistent threat of election-related violence in Pakistan, citing recent incidents that highlight the diverse nature of challenges, ranging from “personal vendettas” to political and militant motivations. The killing of a PTI-backed candidate in Bajaur, a bombing at a PTI rally in Sibi, and other incidents were cited to demonstrate the complex security landscape. The editorial focused on the security threats faced by candidates in KP and Balochistan from the TTP and IS, suggesting that separatists could “sabotage the electoral process” in the latter province. Additionally, the editorial warned against the resurgence of political violence, and took the example of Karachi to highlight the “dangerous tendency” of minor arguments evolving into bigger disputes given that many political groupings are armed. The editorial asserted that it is the “prime duty” of the caretaker administration to safeguard candidates and voters leading up to and on election day. (“Peaceful elections,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
PR Exclusive Update #57
Bomb blast at a PTI rally in Balochistan’s Sibi leaves four dead and six injured
On 30 January, a bomb exploded at a PTI rally in Balochistan’s Sibi, resulting in the death of four people and left other six injured. This blast happened just nine days before the 8 February general elections. The blast occurred during an election rally organized by PTI-backed candidate Saddam Tareen, with three of the dead being PTI workers. PTI condemned the incident, calling it a “criminal failure” of the provincial and federal governments. The Election Commission of Pakistan also took notice of the incident asked Balochistan’s chief secretary and police chief for a report on the matter. Additionally, the caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai stated that “Regardless of the actions of terrorists, the elections will proceed as planned.” (Abdullah Zehri, “4 dead, 6 injured in blast at PTI rally in Balochistan’s Sibi,” Dawn, 30 January 2024)
POLITICS
Imran Khan claims verdicts against him are directed “elsewhere”
On 1 February, Imran Khan, in response to the 14-year jail sentence he received in the Toshakhana case, stated that the verdicts against him and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were coming from external influences, and their “puppets” were merely announcing them. He accused the judges of turning the justice system into a spectacle and said that he would reveal evidence, including “the necklace based on which the conviction was made,” in a press conference. Khan asserted that the necklace was given to him by a Saudi envoy, and that Bushra Bibi was not involved in the Toshakhana case. He stated: “I did not enter politics to strike deals or seek personal benefits. Including Bushra Bibi in cases was a move to tarnish my reputation.” (“Verdicts coming from ‘elsewhere’ merely being announced by ‘puppets’: Imran,” The Express Tribune, 1 February 2024)
Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi confront Khawar Manika in illegal marriage case
On 1 February, during the hearing of the illegal marriage case at Adiala Jail, Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, engaged in a confrontation with Khawar Manika, a witness in the case and Bushra Bibi’s former husband. The courtroom witnessed heated exchanges and threats, with Bushra Bibi’s lawyer charging towards Manika during cross-examination. Manika blamed Bushra Bibi for “lying.” The court recorded statements from three witnesses, and proceedings were adjourned until the next day. Khan demanded an oath on the Quran to deny any “illicit relationship” with Bushra Bibi, but the court said he could not do so as it would end his right of cross-examination. Bushra Bibi in turn maintained that the court could not “take any decision and pronounce sentence” without her statement. (Khalid Iqbal, “‘Illegal’ nikah case: Imran, Bushra have row with Manika in courtroom,” The News International, 2 February 2024)
Senate Committee discusses amendment to Constitution for non-Muslim reserved seats
On 31 January, the Senate’s Standing Committee on Law and Justice discussed the Constitution Amendment Bill 2024, which aims to amend Article 51. Senator Danesh Kumar stated that the “unrestricted geographical allocation” for the ten reserved seats “allows political parties to nominate candidates freely, resulting in disproportionate representation favoring populous provinces.” The proposed amendment, introduced by several senators, seeks to address the disproportionate representation of non-Muslims in the National Assembly by allocating a minimum of one seat to each province. The committee unanimously supported the amendment, considering it fair and equitable. (“Senate Committee discusses Amendment Bill 2024,” The Express Tribune, 1 February 2024)
Imran Khan and wife sentenced to 14 years in Toshakhana case
On 31 January, an accountability court sentenced former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi to 14 years in jail in the Toshakhana reference filed by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). The NAB had accused them of retaining a jewellery set received from Saudi crown prince “against undervalued assessment.” The court barred Imran Khan from holding public office for 10 years and imposed a fine of PKR 787 million on both of them. This marks Imran’s third conviction, following one in the cipher case a day earlier. The PTI condemned the judgment called it the “Complete destruction of every existing law in Pakistan in two days.” The ruling comes just eight days before the 8 February general elections, in the run up to which Imran’s party has been facing multiple challenges amid state crackdown. (Umer Berney, “Imran Khan, Bushra Bibi sentenced to 14 years in Toshakhana reference,” Dawn, 31 January 2024)
SOCIETY
Pakistan improves its ranking in the Corruption Perceptions Index by 7 spots
On 30 January, Transparency International, the Berlin-based corruption watchdog released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Pakistan has been ranked 133 out of 180 countries in 2023 compared to last year when it was ranked 140. This means that Pakistan has improved its ranking by 7 spots. However, the country’s CPI score dropped from 40 in 2022 to 39 in 2023. It is to be noted that the CPI ranks countries by “their perceived levels of public-sector corruption” based on inputs from “experts and businesspeople.” It bases its ranking on “13 independent data sources and uses a scale of zero to 100, where zero is highly corrupt and 100 is very clean.” Reacting to the report, Transparency International Pakistan Chairman Justice (retd) Zia Pervez taak notice of the improvement and argued that “policies aimed at better governance and effective enforcement of the law” would lead to an even better situation in the future. (Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan’s ranking on corruption perception index improves by 7 spots: report,” Dawn, 30 January 2024)
ECONOMY
Pakistan’s year-on-year inflation surges to 28.3 per cent in January
On 1 February, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan’s inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), soared by 28.3 per cent year-on-year in January. This surge is the last monthly CPI data before the general elections. The monthly inflation for January witnessed a 1.83 per cent increase from the previous month. The central bank, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), maintained its key rate at 22 per cent for the fifth consecutive policy meeting, citing elevated inflation, which was 29.7 per cent in December. The SBP increased its full-year inflation projections and attributed the rise to increasing gas and electricity prices. On a month-on-month basis, both urban and rural areas experienced increases in food and non-food categories. (“Inflation clocks in at 28.3pc in January,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Pakistan increases fuel prices for February
On 31 January, the caretaker government raised the per-litre price of petrol by PKR 13.55 and that of high-speed diesel (HSD) by PKR 2.75 for the next fortnight ending 15 February. The increase is attributed to higher international market prices and import premiums. The new ex-depot price of petrol is set at PKR 272.89 per litre, while HSD is priced at PKR 278.96 per litre. Additionally, the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been raised by PKR 1.16 per kilogram for February. The increase in fuel prices is expected to impact transportation costs and contribute to inflation. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Petrol price raised by Rs13.55 per litre,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Tax collection in Pakistan falls short by PKR nine billion of the set target
On 1 February, Dawn reported that the tax collection by Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) fell around PKR 9 billion short of the set target. The collected amount is around PKR 681 billion against the projected PKR 689.6 billion. The shortfall was attributed to lower domestic tax and customs duty collections. However, overall revenue for the first seven months of FY24 exceeded the target by PKR 35 billion, totaling PKR 5.150 trillion. The government has aimed for PKR 9.415 trillion revenue collections in FY24, banking on a 3.5 per cent economic growth and 21 per cent inflation. The FBR plans to boost revenue through a digital-based system and broaden the tax base, including professional service providers. The number of taxpayers in Pakistan is currently 2.3 million. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Revenue collection jumps 25pc in January,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Pakistan sees “economic stabilization” in the first half of FY24 but challenges persist, says Ministry of Finance
On 1 February, Dawn reported that the Ministry of Finance in Islamabad acknowledged persistent economic challenges despite portraying stability. The article highlighted inflationary pressures, citing supply chain disruptions, utility cost increases, and high markup payments. Inflation, expected to remain above 27 per cent, stems from elevated perishable and vegetable prices, soaring utility costs, and disruptions in onion and tomato supply. The MoF anticipated economic strengthening in FY24’s second half, contingent on prudent policies. Agriculture showed promise, but weather shocks posed risks. Industrial performance linked to export markets’ conditions seems favorable. External sector stability reflected a current account surplus of USD 397 million in December, driven by controlled trade deficits, increased exports, and rising remittances. The article further concluded with optimism about continued stability and improved trade balance. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Inflation, surging expenditures persist: MoF,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
ECP halts caretaker government’s FBR restructuring plan
On 31 January, Dawn reported that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had taken an exception to the caretaker government’s FBR restructuring plan and asked it to legislate only on ‘routine’ and ‘non-controversial’ matters, which are ‘reversible’ by the future government.” The ECP argued that such reforms were the prerogative of the elected government pointing out a lack of legislative mandate. In response, the caretaker Finance Minister, Shamshad Akhtar, asserted that the elected government would enact the plan, aiming for an 18 percent tax-to-GDP ratio in five years. The restructuring includes separating policy and operational functions, forming oversight boards for Customs and IRS, and establishing a Federal Policy Board. The caretaker government, however, maintained that the plan had unanimous stakeholder approval. (Mubarak Zeb Khan & Iftikhar A. Khan, “After ECP snub, caretakers leave FBR to elected govt,” Dawn, 31 January 2024)
IMF lowers Pakistan’s growth forecast to two per cent for the current fiscal year
On 31 January, Dawn reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Pakistan’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 2 per cent, down from 0.5 per cent from its October estimate. The next fiscal year’s projection was also lowered to 3.5 per cent. The IMF’s outlook contrasts with the government’s 3.5 per cent GDP target but is in tune with the State Bank of Pakistan’s expectation of 2 per cent to 3 per cent. The IMF’s forecasts are based on the Fund’s recent detailed quarterly review of the marco economic situation in Pakistan as part of its USD 3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA). (Khaleeq Kiani, “IMF lowers Pakistan’s growth forecast to 2pc,” Dawn, 31 January 2024)
SECURITY
Multiple bomb and grenade attacks rock Balochistan, one dead
On 1 February, Balochistan experienced at least ten bomb and grenade attacks, resulting in one fatality and several injuries. The attacks targeted police stations, deputy commissioners’ offices, political party offices, and other locations in different cities, including Quetta. A bomb on the CPEC road in Quetta killed a passerby. Other incidents involved hand grenade attacks on police stations, political party offices, and deputy commissioners’ offices, causing injuries and damage. The Election Commission of Pakistan has sought detailed reports, and the Balochistan government has heightened security across the province. (Saleem Shahid, “Ten bomb, grenade attacks rock Balochistan,” Dawn, 2 February 2024)
High-value target and another terrorist killed in security operation in Dera Ismail Khan
On 1 February, in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, security forces killed two terrorists, including a “high-value target (HVT)” named Ashraf Sheikh, according to the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR). The operation was conducted based on reported terrorist presence, leading to an intense exchange of fire. The terrorists were actively involved in various activities, including the targeted killing of civilians. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives were recovered. The ISPR stated: “Sanitisation operation is being conducted to eliminate any other terrorist found in the area. Locals of the area appreciated the operation and expressed their full support to eliminate the menace of terrorism.” (“2 terrorists including ‘high-value target’ killed in Dera Ismail Khan operation: ISPR,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
Surge in militant attacks in Pakistan amid election preparations
On 1 February, a Pakistani think tank, Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), reported that Pakistan witnessed at least 93 militant attacks in January 2024, marking a 102 per cent increase compared to the previous month. The attacks resulted in 90 deaths, 135 injuries, and 15 abductions. Balochistan experienced the highest number of attacks (33), followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (30) and Former FATA (24). As the country prepares for general elections, there has been a surge in attacks against election-related activities, with 21 recorded incidents in January, leading to ten deaths and 25 injuries. Pakistani security forces successfully thwarted several attacks, eliminating 32 suspected militants. (Muhammed Saleh Zaafir, “90 killed, 135 hurt in 93 militant attacks during Jan 2024,” The News International, 2 February 2024)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan urges Afghanistan to extradite TTP leaders amid surge in attacks
On 1 February, Pakistan reiterated its demand for Afghanistan to extradite leaders of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and emphasized the need to bring those responsible for terrorism to justice. The call came in the wake of a report to the UN Security Council revealing that the TTP, based in Afghanistan, enjoys the support of the Taliban administration and has links with Al Qaeda, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and the Majeed Brigade. The Foreign Office (FO) claimed that Pakistan had shared “concrete evidence” with Afghan authorities and expressed concern over the TTP’s attacks on Pakistan. The FO spokesperson, Mumtaz Baloch, stated: “We urge Afghanistan to take immediate and effective action against these terrorist entities, hand over their leadership to Pakistan, and those individuals who have been involved in terrorist activities inside Pakistan.” Baloch also asserted that negotiating the validity of the Durand Line “has never been on the agenda between Pakistan and Afghanistan and will never be.” (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Islamabad asks Kabul to extradite TTP leaders,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
TTP receives “significant backing” from Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, says UN
On 1 February, Dawn reported that the 33rd report submitted by the ISIL (aka Daesh) and Al Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring to the United Nations Security Council Committee revealed the existence of “significant backing” from Al Qaeda and other factions including the Afghan Taliban for the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for conducting attacks in Pakistan. It argued that the support extends beyond arms provision and includes “active on-ground assistance.” Despite Afghan Taliban’s official stance against TTP’s activities outside Afghanistan, TTP has continued its cross-border attacks into Pakistan. Afghan Taliban’s temporary imprisonment of between “70 and 200” TTP members and their relocation northward aims to ease Pakistani pressure. The report further highlights the establishment of a new TTP base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Al Qaeda’s role in training, guidance, and resource allocation. The emergence of Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) and collaboration with groups like ETIM/TIP and Majeed Brigade underscore the multifaceted threat. ETIM/TIP'’ shift to Baghlan Province raises security concerns, while the Majeed Brigade, linked to Balochistan insurgency, focuses on recruiting female suicide bombers. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “TTP backed by Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban: UN,” Dawn, 1 February 2024)
China’s acceptance of Taliban ambassador is being seen as “tacit recognition” of the Taliban regime
On 31 January, The Express Tribune reported that China became the first country to accept the Taliban Ambassador Bilal Karimi. The move is being seen as a “tacit recognition” of the Afghan Taliban government. The development has surprised many countries including Pakistan. While the international community set benchmarks for recognition, such as an inclusive government and women’s rights, China appears to have taken a pragmatic stance, willing to engage with the Taliban despite concerns. This diverges from the regional consensus, with China’s move potentially complicating efforts by Pakistan and others to address shared concerns. The Taliban sees China’s acceptance as a significant development, urging other nations to follow suit. (Kamran Yousaf, “Has China formally recognised Taliban govt in Afghanistan?,” The Express Tribune, 31 January 2024)
19 Pakistanis rescued from Somali pirates by the Indian Navy
On 30 January, the Indian Navy revealed that it had rescued an Iranian-flagged Al Naeemi fishing vessel hijacked by the Somali pirates. The rescue took place off the Somali coast, some 850 nautical miles (1,574 kilometres) west of the Indian city of Kochi on 29 January. The spokesman stated that the warship INS Sumitra “compelled the safe release” of the 19 Pakistani crew members. The crew had been taken hostage by 11 Somali pirates. This is the second of the latest attack on “Indian Ocean shipping.” Earlier, India had revealed that its forces had also rescued 17 crew members of another Iranian-flagged Iman fishing vessel. This vessel had also been taken hostage by the Somali pirates. These incidents have fuelled concerns regarding a resurgence of pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia which had peaked in 2011, owing to a security gap that has opened in the Indian Ocean following diversion of naval fleets to the Gulf of Aden in Red Sea in response to the Houthi attacks. ( “Indian navy rescues 19 Pakistanis from Somali pirates,” Dawn, 31 January 2024)
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